The housing market, which drove US economic growth in the past three years, has clearly been cooling down this year as shown in the above chart. The NAHB Housing Market Index has dropped from 57 in January to 32 in August.
However REITs, which invest in real estate and sell as shares on major exchanges, are doing well so far this year. The Dow Jones Wilshire REIT Index, which tracks the US market, has risen from 210 in early January to 236 at the end of August, rising over 12% and outperforming the S&P 500 Index.
The cooling housing market does have a negative impact on the value of some properties within REITs. However, investors usually focus more on the dividends of REITs rather than the underlying value of their properties; REITs offer steady income by paying out the majority of their taxable income as dividends. While home affordability is deteriorating, demand for apartments is increasing which benefits REITs tied to apartment buildings. In addition, corporate hiring activities in service industries and expansion of office space is also beneficial to REITs investing in office buildings.
Investors shouldn’t chase the performance of REITs because these securities can be as volatile as stocks and bonds. Better to keep a long-term perspective and diversify in different markets.
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